Hedging means betting against your own open bet so you profit whichever way it goes. To lock in the same profit either way, bet hedge stake = total payout ÷ decimal odds of the hedge. It trades upside for certainty, and because the hedge bet carries its own margin, it usually lowers your expected value.
Key points
- Hedging makes sense when the possible swing is big compared with your bankroll.
- It doesn't make a bet better; it makes the outcome smaller and surer.
- A sportsbook cash-out is a hedge with the margin built in.
A worked example
You bet 10 on a three-leg parlay at -110 per leg. Two legs win. If the last one wins, the parlay returns 69.58 (59.58 profit). The other side of the last game is also -110 (decimal 1.909).
Hedge stake = 69.58 ÷ 1.909 = 36.45
| If… | Parlay | Hedge | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Your last leg wins | +59.58 | −36.45 | +23.13 |
| Your last leg loses | −10.00 | +33.13 | +23.13 |
You've swapped a coin flip between +59.58 and −10 for a guaranteed +23.13. If the last leg was a true 50/50, the unhedged position was worth about +24.79 on average, so the hedge cost about 1.66 in expected value. That's the vig on the hedge bet.
When hedging is worth it
- The payout would be a large share of your bankroll, so the swing really matters.
- You can get a good price on the hedge, which shrinks its cost.
- Partial hedges: bet less than the full amount to keep some upside while cutting the downside.
Cash-outs
A cash-out offer is the sportsbook hedging for you, at a price that includes its margin. Compare the offer with what a hedge would lock in; the hedge is usually better if you can bet the other side at a fair price. FakeBet offers early cash-out on eligible bets, so you can practice deciding when it's worth taking.
Try it with free coins. FakeBet gives you real sportsbook odds, 500 free coins to start and a full record of every bet, so you can practice all of this without risking money. Get FakeBet on Google Play.