Of 484 parlays FakeBet players settled between July 21 and October 19, 2026, 19.2% hit. Two-leg parlays hit 26.9%, against the 29.4% their odds implied; three-leg parlays hit 10.3% (odds implied 12.8%). Straight bets won 52.6% of the time.
Hit rate by number of legs
The green bar is how often those parlays actually won. The grey bar is the average chance their combined odds implied.
| Legs | Parlays | Hit | Hit rate | Odds implied | Typical odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 279 | 75 | 26.9% | 29.4% | +261 |
| 3 | 155 | 16 | 10.3% | 12.8% | +795 |
| 4 | 23 small sample | 2 | 8.7% | 9.1% | +1148 |
| 5 | 9 small sample | 0 | 0% | 6.6% | +2421 |
| 6+ | 18 small sample | 0 | 0% | 2.5% | +9710 |
What the math says
Every leg has to win, so the chances multiply. With legs at -110 (a 52.4% chance each):
| Legs | Chance all win | About 1 in | Pays roughly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 27.4% | 4 | +264 |
| 3 | 14.4% | 7 | +596 |
| 4 | 7.5% | 13 | +1228 |
| 5 | 3.9% | 25 | +2436 |
| 6 | 2.1% | 48 | +4741 |
Those chances already include the sportsbook's margin, which compounds with every leg. Try your own legs in the parlay calculator, or strip the margin out with the implied probability calculator.
How we count
Every parlay a FakeBet player settled as won or lost in the last 90 days, grouped by number of legs. Cash-outs are left out, and so are parlays placed after a game started and parlays with leg insurance or a pushed or voided leg (244 tickets), because those no longer pay at their original odds. “Odds implied” averages 1 ÷ the decimal odds of each ticket. These are play-money bets from FakeBet's community, so they reflect how our players pick, not every bettor, and smaller rows can swing a lot. Month-by-month numbers are in the FakeBet data reports.