Closing line value (CLV) compares the odds you took with the closing line, the final odds before the game starts. If you bet a team at +150 and it closed at +130, you beat the close: your bet implied a 40% chance and the market finished at 43.5%. Bettors who beat the close consistently tend to win over time, and CLV shows it in weeks instead of seasons.
Key points
- The closing line is the market's best-informed price, after all the news and money is in.
- Measure CLV in implied probability so it works for favorites and underdogs alike.
- CLV has far less noise than wins and losses, so it says more from fewer bets.
How to calculate it
CLV = closing implied probability − your implied probability
| You took | Closed | Your implied | Close implied | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +150 | +130 | 40.0% | 43.5% | +3.5 points |
| -110 | -120 | 52.4% | 54.5% | +2.2 points |
| -150 | -135 | 60.0% | 57.4% | −2.6 points |
For a cleaner number, remove the margin from both sides of the closing market first with the implied probability calculator.
Why it works
Odds move as information and money arrive. By kickoff the price reflects injuries, weather, lineups and the opinions of the sharpest bettors. If your bets keep getting better prices than that final number, you're consistently ahead of the market, which is exactly what a long-run winner does. Win-loss records take thousands of bets to separate skill from luck (see how many bets until you know); CLV starts telling you something after a few dozen.
What it won't tell you
- A single bet's CLV means little. Look at the average over many bets.
- Small, thin markets can close at a poor price, so CLV is most reliable on big markets.
- Beating the close at a bad book can still lose to a better price elsewhere.
How to track it
Log the closing odds next to the odds you took for every practice bet. In FakeBet, each market's stats page charts the moneyline through the day, so you can read off where it closed after you bet.
Try it with free coins. FakeBet gives you real sportsbook odds, 500 free coins to start and a full record of every bet, so you can practice all of this without risking money. Get FakeBet on Google Play.